How to calculate your campaign reach

When planning a campaign, your first step should be setting a campaign performance goal and calculate your forecasted results.

To do this, the first thing you would need to do is calculate your audience size. Without this, it is impossible for your goal to be realistic and achievable. Audience size needs to be as accurate as possible, so calculating audience size by population is a good start, but also consider by channel (such as Facebook, YouTube), and targeting, such as tastes and dislikes, geo, demographics etc.

Finding demographic details by media channel for Malta is not easy. Similar in other small countries too. To give me an idea on population size by channel I use  Napoleoncat, but take these numbers with a pinch of salt.

Why is this data important, and how to use them when planning a campaign?

Let's say you are a marketing manager, and you would like to target the age group 18-24 in Malta, with a €100/month budget to spend on Facebook. If your CPM (cost per thousand impressions) is approx €6, that would mean you would get ~16k impressions, with a €100 budget.

According to Napoleancat, there are 402k people on Facebook in Malta, and 57,000 of those are between 18-24. That would mean with this budget, you would be able to serve ~16,000 ads (also known as impressions) to your target audience. This does not mean you would be able to reach 16,000 people, because a user would likely see the ad more than once. So if a campaign has a frequency of 2.5, then this would reach approx 6,400 users (16,000 impressions / frequency of 2.5x = 6,400 users).

I am sharing this example because by doing this quick exercise you can understand the impact your budget has against your target audience.  Whether this budget is satisfactory or not, depending on your goals and campaign objectives. This is solely to understand that with €100 budget you are likely to reach around 6,400 people. This is 11% of your target audience.

Hope this helps to get you thinking about how much budget you need to reach your audience size? Do you do similar calculations before starting to plan a campaign?

Side note:

During my research, I noticed that 7,000 users between ages 25-34 stopped using facebook last month (Aug 2020) compared to the previous month. Could this be because that age group are going out more (regardless of Covid numbers), compared to last month, and therefore using social media less?

Digital Strategy Consultant | Malta | Digital Marketing Services